“Alternating Current is useless:” Thomas Edison. “There is a world market for maximum five computers:” Thomas Watson, IBM founder. “People will soon become tired of watching television:” Daryl Zanuck. “The iPhone will not capture any market share:” Steve Balmer. “The internet will soon collapse:” Robert Metcafe, Ethernet inventor.
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After the first moon landing, the American airline Pan American took 93,000 advanced bookings for a round trip to moon. It was expected to happen in 2000. The airline went out of business in 1991. We are yet to send another human there.
Everyone in the 1960s thought that we would live on Mars by the end of the 20th century…
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The future is fundamentally unpredictable. While making predictions, we either grossly overestimate or ridiculously underestimate the effect of emerging technologies. 99.99% of science-fiction forever remains fiction.
The very act of predicting disruptive technological inventions means that you already know what the technology is and how it will work. In that case, you can invent it right now, rather than waiting for x number of years.
Another severe problem with these kind of predictions is the self-imposed timeframe (see above examples). I remember watching a BBC documentary around the year 2008 which assumed that our oil reserves will be exhausted by 2015. It seems ridiculous now. Most projects, from construction of roads to launching of rockets, are never finished within the stipulated duration (and budget). Likewise, we can’t predict that we will find aliens or the cure for cancer by 20xx.
But we don’t learn from our mistakes. We want a seer who can tell us about the unknown even if we know they are wrong all the time. Most people, when lost, would prefer using a wrong map over using nothing at all. Astrologers and economists thrive on this weakness of ours.
Yet, some fantasies are necessary. We need something to work towards. Most inventions are serendipitous. It has often happened that the inventor was working on something ambitious but invented something completely different, but equally important. Columbus set out to find India, he found America instead. This doesn’t mean that Columbus shouldn’t have thought about India; neither does this undermine his discovery of America. Similarly, Alexander Fleming wasn’t looking for Penicillin, this doesn’t make his prior project useless, rather it only strengthens the point that we need to have some kind of end result in mind; hopefully we would build something useful even if completely different.
Here are some things I expect in the future:
Food:
The ultimate purpose of all inventions and developments is to increase our productivity (whatever that means). We want to cut off time spent on one activity so that we can pursue another.
The ultimate purpose of all inventions and developments is to increase our productivity (whatever that means). We want to cut off time spent on one activity so that we can pursue another.
Telephones reduced the time taken for communicating with distant relatives from days and months to a few seconds. Cars, trains and planes reduced the time spent on travelling. E-commerce reduced the time spent on shopping. We want faster processors, faster internet, faster trains. We want to cut down even the 20-25 minutes spent on reading a newspaper. That’s why apps like News in Shorts are becoming popular. So, what’s next?
No food.
An average person spends around two hours per day on buying groceries, cooking and eating. What if we never have to eat solid food again?
You have probable heard of Soylent. If not, google it. It is a meal replacement, available in liquid and powdered form. MyDaily is the Indian version (probably copied, like most startups), though it’s not affordable as of now. These products are not the ultimate replacement of food. They are meant to be taken once in a while. But I expect better products in the near future which will completely eliminate the necessity of eating.
One main problem with replacement of traditional food with liquids is our emotional attachment to solid food. We don’t crave for calories, we crave for a pizza or an ice cream. Our eating habits haven’t changed for thousands of years. Even now when the technology is available, replacing solid food will take a long time. But for people like me who have little to no emotional connection with food, the transition might take place in a decade or two.
Throw away your charger:
John Galt’s electric motor is still a distant dream, but we can expect electronic devices with wireless charging capacities to soon become reality. Many companies are putting great effort in wireless energy harvesting using microwaves and radio waves. But don’t throw away your chargers yet. Maybe in 2025.
John Galt’s electric motor is still a distant dream, but we can expect electronic devices with wireless charging capacities to soon become reality. Many companies are putting great effort in wireless energy harvesting using microwaves and radio waves. But don’t throw away your chargers yet. Maybe in 2025.
Cars:
One of my childhood fancy was compact flying cars. People have been dreaming about such cars ever since the first airplane was made. It’s been nearly 100 years without any significant advancement in this direction. But now, Airbus says it has developed the technology. If it’s true, then we can expect to see affordable personal flying cars in the next 20-30 years. If personal flying cars become reality, it will transform our world. Most roads in Indian metro cities are always jammed. Flying cars will be a great relief.
One of my childhood fancy was compact flying cars. People have been dreaming about such cars ever since the first airplane was made. It’s been nearly 100 years without any significant advancement in this direction. But now, Airbus says it has developed the technology. If it’s true, then we can expect to see affordable personal flying cars in the next 20-30 years. If personal flying cars become reality, it will transform our world. Most roads in Indian metro cities are always jammed. Flying cars will be a great relief.
Banknotes:
(Some people like to fancy a moneyless world. That can never happen. But that topic deserves a separate article). Ever since the invention of the semiconductor, our goal has been to make things as compact as they can be. Moore’s Law. We are yet to reach the limits. There is no doubt we are heading towards a cashless world. But there is still too much to carry around everywhere: wallet, keys, ids, phone etc. Why don’t we condense everything into a single wearable chip? Bank account, Aadhar, PAN, EPIC, everything can be linked to this. Moreover, it can serve as the key for all our locks. 3-4 years ago, I had watched a TED talk about wearable small chips that can act as a computer/mobile by projecting the screen anywhere. Hope they become practical soon, with added features.
(Some people like to fancy a moneyless world. That can never happen. But that topic deserves a separate article). Ever since the invention of the semiconductor, our goal has been to make things as compact as they can be. Moore’s Law. We are yet to reach the limits. There is no doubt we are heading towards a cashless world. But there is still too much to carry around everywhere: wallet, keys, ids, phone etc. Why don’t we condense everything into a single wearable chip? Bank account, Aadhar, PAN, EPIC, everything can be linked to this. Moreover, it can serve as the key for all our locks. 3-4 years ago, I had watched a TED talk about wearable small chips that can act as a computer/mobile by projecting the screen anywhere. Hope they become practical soon, with added features.
Work:
At every stage of the industrial revolution, humanity’s biggest fear has been machines eliminating the need of humans. That day will never come. We haven’t been able to make even a good website builder. There are millions of web developers; no software will ever make websites as good as made by coding manually. Things like machine learning, artificial intelligence and deep learning have a long way to go. That said, however, the work humans do is changing continuously. Pretty soon, there will be no manual labour jobs. Everything that can be done by machines, will be done by machines. There will be no security guards, cashiers, labourers, waiters, clerks, cleaners etc. I don’t think we will even require teachers. The only jobs which will survive are the ones involving thinking. Coding, research, trading, management are some of them. Even entertainers will not survive. The internet doesn’t accept mediocrity. Slightly good performers will capture a disproportionately large share. This is happening even now. Only the best will survive.
At every stage of the industrial revolution, humanity’s biggest fear has been machines eliminating the need of humans. That day will never come. We haven’t been able to make even a good website builder. There are millions of web developers; no software will ever make websites as good as made by coding manually. Things like machine learning, artificial intelligence and deep learning have a long way to go. That said, however, the work humans do is changing continuously. Pretty soon, there will be no manual labour jobs. Everything that can be done by machines, will be done by machines. There will be no security guards, cashiers, labourers, waiters, clerks, cleaners etc. I don’t think we will even require teachers. The only jobs which will survive are the ones involving thinking. Coding, research, trading, management are some of them. Even entertainers will not survive. The internet doesn’t accept mediocrity. Slightly good performers will capture a disproportionately large share. This is happening even now. Only the best will survive.
I have gazillion things to say. But this article is becoming too long.
More in part 2.
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